Is A Flue Pandemic Coming?

IT SURE LOOKS LIKE IT.

by

JOHN A. BARRASSO, MD

Most of us weren't around for the last big influenza pandemic - the
Spanish Flu that swept across the world in 1918-1919. We December have to deal with a similar global flu outbreak in the relatively near future. Whether it will be the avian
flu or some similar mutant strain, state and federal health officials are convinced a global flu out­break
is coming. It will potentially be far more serious and deadly than the
normal seasonal flu. That means all of us - but especially seniors - will be at risk

A pandemic is an epidemic of global proportions that sweeps around the
world, often in waves. An influenza pandemic can occur when a new virulent strain of flu virus emerges suddenly, before humans can develop a natural immunity. It spreads quickly, before we can develop vaccines to prevent the disease or antiviral medicines to
treat it.

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt visited Wyo­ming to urge us to begin planning for a pandemic. The secretary was the keynote speaker at the Wyoming Pandemic Flu Summit and discussed federal, state and lo­cal roles in preparing for a pandemic, as well as individual responsibility. The federal government is monitoring the spread of bird flu. Avian flu has reached pandemic levels among birds but not humans. Scientists fear the virus will mutate so it can 

 be spread from humans to humans. The government also is working to develop effective vaccines to prevent infection and antiviral medications to treat flu symptoms. It is working to reduce the time it takes to produce those vaccines and medications and get them into the hands of the people.

The good news, according to Secretary Leavitt, is that researchers are developing
potential vaccines that show great promise. The bad news is that once a pandemic flu strain presents itself, it will take us at least six months to
develop the vaccine and develop the manufacturing capacity to produce it for to protect every American.

Seniors historically are at higher risk for seasonal flu and that could
be true in a pandemic. Pandemics often strike some populations
disproportionately. The 1918 pandemic, for example, hit middle-age adults the hardest. The
problem is every pandemic is different. All of us must prepare for an event we hope will never happen. Secretary Leavitt says we're better prepared today than we were yesterday. He pledges we'll be better prepared tomorrow than we are today. One positive by­product
of this preparation is that we'll be better able to combat a variety of
disasters and public health problems, including the annual seasonal flu that hits seniors dis­proportionately hard.